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Ware2Go’s Approach to Demand Forecasting & Client Success

January 21, 2022
7 min read
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Learn how a strong partnership with your fulfillment provider can improve your fulfillment performance and overall customer experience. 

We sat down with Tina WIlliams, VP of Client Success, and Nick Hyder, Data Scientist, to learn more about how accurate demand forecasting fuels better fulfilment performance and how client communication fuels better demand forecasting.

Why does Ware2Go prioritize demand forecasting?

Tina:

We started prepping for the holiday shopping season early this year. Over the summer we took a deep dive into our client communications and internal processes. We wanted to find every opportunity we could to improve communication with our merchants and build a game plan that we all felt confident in before the holiday season started.

After gathering feedback from both our warehouse partners and merchants we saw that demand forecasting was one of our biggest opportunities to improve performance. Demand forecasting helps us perform better for our merchants in several ways:

  • The forecast acts as a blueprint for everyone on our team and the merchants’ team to work from. Of course no forecast is perfect and we have to remain flexible, but having that blueprint means we’re all in sync on what to plan for.
  • Warehouses are able to more effectively schedule labor, which was especially important in 2021 when the labor market was so tight.
  • Inventory carry costs are optimized. We can more accurately advise merchants when and how much inventory to reorder.
  • Products can be re-slotted for ease of access if they’re going to move at a higher than usual volume due to sales or promotional schedules.
  • We can better advise merchants where to store inventory to lower their final mile time in transit.

What data is needed for demand forecasting?

Nick:

The primary data set for demand forecasting is sales history. For merchants we have a long history with, this is one of the easiest pieces of data to gather. Our technology is based in machine learning, so the longer a merchant works with us, the smarter and more accurate our algorithm will be. 

Merchants who have more recently started shipping with us may bring their own historical sales data from their online store or ecommerce platform, such as Shopify or BigCommerce. Startups and newer brands can be tricky to forecast because of their limited sales history. Ware2Go remedies this by using machine learning models that incorporate not only sales history but also qualitative data about merchants.

At the end of the day, the merchant knows their business best, and there are a few types of data that depends on open lines of communication between our team and the merchants’:

  • Sales and promotional schedules
  • New targeted marketing campaigns
  • Major publicity like a “Best Of” list

Our goal is to ensure inventory and warehouse labor is adequate to make these big surges in demand a success. We know that every interaction with a new shopper is an opportunity to win a loyal customer, and our data shows that fulfillment is a big part of that. In fact, 79% of consumers report that 2-day shipping increases their likelihood of purchasing from a brand again. By wow-ing our merchants’ end customers with speedy delivery, we can help maximize the returns on big promotions and seasonal spikes in demand.

Tina:

Often, if a good forecast isn’t in place, operations have to react quickly to keep up with sudden spikes in demand. Without proper planning, the only solution available is to throw more hands on the project. However, when we have a clear forecast and time to prepare, we can tackle projects with both brains and brawn. 

One unique thing about Ware2Go is that our team has both operational expertise and data and analytics knowledge. We’ve learned that when we work together with our merchants to forecast demand, we can actually use data to make our operations even more efficient. One example is helping merchants with high-volume projects.  We can work with our warehouses to set up pick and pack stations that maximize efficiency.  This allows us to scale up at an exponentially higher rate than just throwing in more man power alone.

This makes us a great solution for high-growth merchants who want to establish strong partnerships early in their business as they grow. We also have great success partnering with merchants who need supplemental help for big projects like a Black Friday sale or a feature on Deals & Steals. 

How is Ware2Go improving demand forecasts for their merchants?

Tina:

We worked hard to open up the lines of communication with our merchants before the 2021 peak season. We also had some fun game-ifying the forecast by running a contest between Nick and some of our high-volume merchants. Nick created a forecast based on the information he had on hand, shared that forecast with the merchants, and then the merchants adjusted it based on internal data like their promotional schedules and new product launches.

Nick:

Ultimately the contest confirmed that any demand forecast can be enhanced by incorporating as much data as possible. Our merchants are the experts on their business, and the more internal data they provided, the better our forecast was.

On our end, we’re also getting more aggressive in our forecasts – forecasting further out, forecasting down to the SKU level, and honing in on geographic markets. We not only want our forecasts to help merchants meet consumer demand, but we also want to help them find the most cost-effective way to do it. 

By creating demand forecasts at the SKU level, we can advise merchants which slow-moving products they may want to move into less expensive storage markets. When we add geographical demand patterns, we can help them lower their time in transit for faster and more cost-effective final mile deliveries.

What’s in the future for Ware2Go’s merchants?

Nick:

We’re investing pretty heavily in more in-depth reporting including our WMS platform, FulfillmentVu. This reporting is presented in easily digestible formats that offer actionable insights that merchants can use to improve their inventory management and demand forecasting. The reporting is automatically generated through API connections with the rest of the merchants’ tech stack. 

We’ve been working closely with our product team to create a user-friendly experience for our merchants to access in-depth reporting with recommendations for inventory allocation, replenishment orders, and more.

Tina:

Long-term we’re working on making our demand forecasting and inventory management tools more self-service and user-friendly.  This will empower merchants to make smarter decisions that optimize costs and provide their customers with a better experience.

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